The Writing on the Wall

The jump in visa refusals was on GOV.UK in February.

Home Office figures published on 26 February 2026 showed refusal rates for student visas rising sharply in several of Sunderland’s biggest markets. For Nigeria, the biggest, 17.9% of applications were refused in October to December 2025, against 5.3% a year earlier. For Pakistan the rate was 42.1%, against 5.7%. Source

Where refusals jumped, Sunderland’s numbers fell hardest

Blue bar: share of student visa applications (main applicants) refused in October to December 2025, from the 26 February 2026 release. Thin black line: the same quarter a year earlier. Black bar: fall in Sunderland’s Semester 1 enrolment from that country. Home Office Enrolments

−40%All international enrolment, 2026/27 against 2025/26 (5,755 to 3,426).
−59%Faculty of Business and Technology (3,368 to 1,376). The other two faculties fell 17% and 12%.

What the figures can’t show

The Home Office does not publish refusal rates for individual universities, and other things changed too. UK applications were falling, and Nepal, where refusals barely moved, still fell by 63%. But in every market where refusals jumped, Sunderland’s numbers fell, and China, where they did not, held steady.

Three questions for the Executive

The latest minutes we have seen are from June 2025. We would like the Executive to answer these.

  1. When did it first discuss the Home Office’s February 2026 figures?
  2. What did it change in the 2026/27 budget or recruitment plan, and when?
  3. Will it publish the minutes that answer the first two?